The GOP's 2026 Midterm "Momentum": A Data Dive
House Republicans are feeling good about the 2026 midterms. A leaked NRCC memo claims they have "clear momentum" against a "broke, divided" Democratic party. The memo, first shared with The Post, paints a rosy picture of GOP prospects, citing Democratic infighting and a perceived weakness in their messaging. But let’s unpack this, shall we?
The core of the GOP argument rests on two pillars: historical trends and current polling data. Historically, the party in power tends to lose seats in the House during midterm elections. (The exceptions are always more interesting than the rule, of course.) The NRCC also points to a supposedly stronger polling position compared to 2017, before the 2018 "blue wave."
Polling Data: A Closer Look
Let's drill down on that polling data. The NRCC highlights that Democrats have a smaller lead on the generic congressional ballot now (3.6 percentage points) than they did in 2017 (nearly 9 points). That's true, directionally. But a 3.6-point lead is still a lead. Are we popping champagne over a smaller deficit? It feels like celebrating a slightly less severe root canal.
The memo also emphasizes that 67% of Democrats are "frustrated" with their party, a jump from around 50% in 2019 and 2021 Pew polls. Frustration is a feeling, not a voting bloc. What’s the conversion rate of frustrated Democrats to Republican voters? That's the number that matters. And the memo doesn't provide it.
The NRCC further claims that 70% of Americans find Democrats "out of touch," a double-digit increase over the last decade. Again, this sounds damning, but what issues are driving this perception? The memo lists "higher taxes, weak leadership, a soft-on-crime stance, open borders, and wokeness." These are talking points, not data points. Where's the data showing which issues resonate most with swing voters? I’ve looked at hundreds of these memos, and the lack of granular data is a common theme.
Fundraising: A Real Advantage?
Now, let's talk money. The NRCC is touting a fundraising advantage, claiming to be $723,000 ahead of the DCCC for the first three quarters of 2025. They also claim to have raised $20 million more and hold $7.5 million more cash on hand compared to this point in 2017.
Okay, that's a more concrete advantage. But context is crucial. What's the burn rate for both parties? How efficiently are they converting donations into votes? A bigger war chest doesn't guarantee victory if you're spending it on attack ads nobody watches.
Interestingly, the memo conspicuously avoids mentioning the mid-decade redistricting war. (A rather significant omission, wouldn't you agree?) Redistricting can dramatically shift the playing field, regardless of fundraising or polling numbers. Ignoring it is like analyzing a stock without looking at its beta.
The DCCC, predictably, dismisses the NRCC memo as "out of touch," arguing that the midterms will be a referendum on lowering costs and improving the lives of everyday Americans. (A classic counter-narrative.) They claim House Democrats are favored to retake the majority. But, again, where's the data to back that up?
